It's not just my imagination… is it? (Rain forecasting for Austin)

I’ve lived here a long time and don’t really have the experience with other places… but is it my imagination or is the rain forecasting in Austin exceptionally bad? Is it like this in other cities?

How many times do you hear about rain later in the week, followed by “and now the models are trending drier”? And it’s not just the local weathermen. National forecasts from NOAA predicting rainfall are so often wrong.

Is there something specifically difficult about forecasting here? I guess being along the line between much drier to the west and much wetter to the east causes issues, but wouldn’t that be factored in by now?

If over the course of a year we actually received the rain that is predicted in 7-day forecasts, the lakes would be full and our rivers would never run dry.